This post was written by Hatchet senior staff writer Josh Solomon.

As Ritchie said after the Saint Louis sweep, if GW cannot pitch well – particularly the starting end to keep the team in the game – then the Colonials will probably lose.

But, before tournament play begins, it can be useful to look at what else will and will not potentially go in the favor of the Colonials

The following is a brief breakdown of some key team and player statistics that if go right, GW could win each individual game, and give themselves a legitimate chance to make a run to the title game and win it all.

Conference and Team Stats

In A-10 play GW has been average, by the numbers. The team is sixth out of 13 in the conference in batting average and the Colonials are 11th in team ERA, during conference play.

There are a few categories worth highlighting though.

GW struck out the second-least in the league during conference play, next to VCU. That comes out to about a clip of five strikeouts per game by the Colonials batters.

Individually, senior Luke Olson boasted the second-best ERA by any individual during conference play, at 0.98.

Junior Joey Bartosic led or was close to the top for several categories offensively for the conference. He had the top batting average in A-10 play: .426. He also collected the most hits: 43.

Bartosic and his teammate, junior Bobby Campbell (who collected the seventh most RBI in A-10 play, at 19) both were awarded All-Conference First Team honors this weekend.

GW averaged about 4.6 runs per game in A-10 play. The team collected about nine hits a game and struck about five times, while walking twice a game. The Colonials would on average leave nearly seven runners on base per game and commit one fielding error a game.

Advanced Stats

Here are a few quick hits on the team’s success when the Colonials and specific Colonials perform up to a certain standard. All calculations use the full regular season’s numbers.

Unlike most statistics for the Colonials in attempting to predict success, hits is one of the few that is significant in telling any type of story. Although it would be logical for a stat like runners left on base or fielding errors committed, or even amount of times striking out in the game, those statistics prove to not have an exceptional, predictable outcome on the result of the game.

Rather, and somewhat understandably, the more hits GW gets the more likely the team is to win. What’s the breaking point? When the Colonials rack up nearly 11 hits in a game, they will likely win by one run. This is not to say that they cannot win without 11 hits, but if they do hit that magic number, it is almost definite that they will come out on top. Of note: GW’s first-round opponent, VCU gave up about nine hits a game this season.

How important is the A-10’s top hitter to GW’s success? When Joey Bartosic scores a run in a game, the Colonials win. If Bartosic scores two runs in the game, GW will likely win by three runs. Without a run by the talented leadoff hitter, the Colonials will likely lose by about two runs. In other words, Bartosic is the team’s essential table-setter.

A couple of Colonials have carried the GW offense from runs batted in perspective:

GW is likely to lose if junior Kevin Mahala does not drive in a run. When he does knock one in though, the Colonials typically will win by a little less than a run, on average. This means that Mahala’s success with runners in scoring position is vital to the team’s ability to win games this year. This makes sense too because for the most part, Mahala has batted near the heart of the lineup, in prime positioning to influence the outcome.

The Colonials are also likely to lose to if junior Bobby Campbell does not drive in a run. Note though this is independent of whether Mahala drives in a run too. What this does take into account is that both hitters are a huge part to the GW offense.

Campbell in fact is even more valuable: if he drives in one run, GW will likely win by one run and when he drives in two runs, the team will likely win by three runs. Campbell’s effects are similar to Bartosic’s, which is a good indicator to why these two players are both on the All-Conference First Team.

From the pitching end it’s a little harder to predict potential success since GW’s rotation has been anything less than predictable. The Colonials have had one steady starter, senior Bobby LeWarne. “The Bull” has not been the same since his last start against VCU, in which he threw 9.0 innings, giving up five hits and three runs in the loss. The tough senior threw a 131 pitches in that game. Since then he has thrown a combined 12.2 innings pitched in three starts, giving up 15 runs, all earned.

In those three conference matchups, LeWarne has not been able to battle through early inning trouble like he is most known for being able to artfully do. If he does get the start Wednesday against VCU, it will be a matchup worth throwing the numbers out and just watching to see what the senior can do when he toes the rubber.

Read our full A-10 Championship preview here.