Just days before the Sept. 14 Democratic primary for D.C.’s mayoral race, three polls are placing GW alumnus Vincent Gray ahead of incumbent Adrian Fenty by more than 5 percentage points.
A poll released Wednesday by nonpartisan Clarus Research Group has Gray in a seven-point lead against Fenty, at 45 percent to Fenty’s 38 percent. The Washington City Paper also conducted a poll projecting an 11-point lead for Gray, putting him at 50 percent to Fenty’s 39 percent. A “supermarket survey” conducted by six GW students as part of a class found that Gray had a 12.5 percent lead over Fenty, who came in at 37.5 percent.
Clarus has also forecasted possible election outcomes based on potential voter demographics. Racial divides, as determined by a poll released by the group in August, could very well decide which candidate celebrates a victory Tuesday night.
According to the poll, with a 50 percent black turnout, Gray would be left with a slim 2-point lead over Fenty – well within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error. Raising the black electorate to 60 percent would inflate Gray’s lead to 11 points, locking the numbers at 47 percent to Fenty’s 36 percent.
The Washington Post, Washington City Paper and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg have endorsed Fenty.
“Vote Adrian Fenty. He’s a jerk. But he’s your jerk,” the City Paper said.
GW law professor and D.C. Councilmember Mary Cheh endorsed Gray Tuesday.