Update on the men’s team’s Atlantic City odds

Things have gotten a bit clearer since the last time we looked at the men’s basketball team’s chances of reaching the upcoming 12-team Atlantic 10 tournament. Here is the relevant block of A-10 standings and each team’s upcoming opponents.

10. Charlotte 5-9 (vs. Richmond, at St. Bonaventure)

11. Massachusetts 5-9 (vs. GW, at Rhode Island)

12. St. Bonaventure 5-10 (vs. Charlotte)

13. GW 4-10 (at Massachusetts, vs. Temple)

Since GW’s chances largely rest on them continuing to win, the first set of scenarios will look at how things would have to play out if the Colonials beat UMass Wednesday. If that were to happen, GW would enter a three-way tie with the Minutemen and Bonnies for 11th place as each would own 5-9 records. In this scenario the Colonials would own head-to-head wins over both teams and thus vault into 11th place.

They would then control their own fate heading into Saturday’s season finale against Temple: win and they’re in. They could also get in with a loss by either St. Bonaventure or Massachusetts Saturday, meaning there is a slight chance the Colonials will already be in the tournament by Saturday’s tip-off.

Here is the condensed version:

If the Colonials beat UMass, they get in if…

-They beat Temple

OR

-St. Bonaventure loses to Charlotte Saturday

OR

-UMass loses to Rhode Island Saturday

OR

-They beat Temple and Charlotte loses their final two games

If the Colonials lose to UMass, they get in if…

-They beat Temple and St. Bonaventure loses to Charlotte

Seeding is a more complicated story, as the Colonials could actually end up as high as 10th if they win out and Charlotte loses out. A 12th or 11th seed would seem more likely if GW were to qualify since those seeds could result from more scenarios. Either way, Wednesday’s game at Massachusetts is obviously key to leaving as many paths to Atlantic City open as possible.

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